MODEL ESTIMASI PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA KE INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN CO-INTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

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ABSTRACT: Tourism industry has been an important contributor to the Indonesia economy. The purpose of the empirical research in this paper is to investigate the existence of cointegration between tourism demand variables from the five’s biggest market of Indonesia tourism demand: Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan. The tourism demand has been explained by per capita real income, exchange rate, tourism price and dummy variables. Annual data from 1985 to 2007 are used for the analysis. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Johansen’s maximum likelihood tests are used to test for unit root and co-integration. An error correction model (ECM) are estimated to an explain  those five’s biggest market for tourism to Indonesia. The results show that  for Australia and Malaysia the long run equilibrium exists among variables and  their tourist seem to be highly sensitive to the per capita real income and exchange rate variables. On the otherhand, for Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, their varaibles can not be analised by Johansen’ maximum likelihood test because their results of the unit root tests are not uni-form in stationarity.
Keywords: pariwisata, co-integration, an error correc-tion model (ECM)
Penulis: Sarwoko
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd090078
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