MODEL ESTIMASI PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA KE INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN CO-INTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
ABSTRACT: Tourism industry has
been an important contributor to the Indonesia economy. The purpose of the
empirical research in this paper is to investigate the existence of cointegration
between tourism demand variables from the five’s biggest market of Indonesia
tourism demand: Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan. The tourism
demand has been explained by per capita real income, exchange rate, tourism
price and dummy variables. Annual data from 1985 to 2007 are used for the analysis.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Johansen’s maximum likelihood tests are used
to test for unit root and co-integration. An error correction model (ECM) are
estimated to an explain those five’s biggest
market for tourism to Indonesia. The results show that for Australia and Malaysia the long run equilibrium
exists among variables and their tourist
seem to be highly sensitive to the per capita real income and exchange rate
variables. On the otherhand, for Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, their varaibles
can not be analised by Johansen’ maximum likelihood test because their results
of the unit root tests are not uni-form in stationarity.
Keywords: pariwisata,
co-integration, an error correc-tion model (ECM)
Penulis: Sarwoko
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd090078
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