ANALISIS PERAMALAN EKSPOR INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS KEUANGAN EROPA DAN GLOBAL TAHUN 2008 DENGAN METODE DEKOMPOSISI
ABSTRACT: This research
aims to analyze
the value of
Indonesia's exports of
forecasting on agriculture,
industry, mining, and the aggregate of the third sector in the aftermath of the
financial crisis in
Europe and globally
in 2008 with
the decomposition method.
In this study, the
data used is
Indonesia export value
growth data on
agriculture, industry and mining,
the aggregate of
all three of
these sectors during
the period January
2002 s/d December 2011. This
Data is used
to predict the
value of exports
during the period January 2011 s/d December 2017 in the
future by using the method of decomposition. In addition, the study also will
try to prove the accuracy of the method of decomposition in forecasting
Indonesia export value in the aggregate of all three of these sectors during
the period January 2002 s/d December 2011. The results showed that the value of
exports of agriculture, industry, mining,
aggregate the third
sector conducted by
the method of decomposition for
the period of
January 2011 s/d
December 2017 onwards
produce export value that
tends to increase.
From the results
of the measurement
of the level
of accuracy of forecasting the value of Indonesia's exports in the
aggregate by the method of decomposition
during the research
period (January 2002
s/d December 2011), resulting MAPE value of 11%, which
means that the accuracy of forecasting is not good because it exceeds the
limits of the tolerance of 5 %
Penulis: Jimmy Handoko Barus, Ramli
Kode Jurnal: jpakuntansidd130186
