MODEL PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR JENIS PREMIUM DI INDONESIA DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA
Abstract: Energy consumption
forecasting, especially premium,
is an integral part
of energy management.
Premium is a
type of energy
that receives government subsidy.
Unfortunately, premium forecastings being performed have considerable high
error resulting difficulties
on reaching planned
subsidy target and exploding
the amount. In
this study forecasting
was conducted using multilinear regression (MLR) method
with ten candidate predictor variables. The result shows
that only four
variables which are
inflation, selling price
disparity between pertamanx and premium, economic growth rate, and the
number of car, dictate premium consumption.
Analsys on the
MLR model indicates
that the model has
a considerable low
error with the
mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE) of 5.18%.
The model has
been used to
predict 2013 primium consumption with
1.05% of error.
The model predicted
that 2013 premium consumption was
29.56 million kiloliter,
while the reality
was 29.26 million kiloliter.
Penulis: Farizal, Amar Rachman
dan Hadi Al Rasyid
Kode Jurnal: jptindustridd140092
