Early Warning System for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Epidemics in Makassar
Abstract: A three-month in
advance warning system for upcoming DHF epidemics is developed. The system uses
a simple predictive regression model based on past and present DHF cases,
climate and meteorological observations as inputs to predict future DHF cases.
Using Peirce score as a measure of prediction skill, the model only
successfully predicts a moderately-severe epidemic at lead times of up to 6
months. Another model uses a discriminant method is also developed. This model
gives much higher skill score and longer lead times than that of the regression
model. The economic benefit of using the discriminant model’s forecast to
protect a family from an epidemic is also demonstrated. It is shown that
families who are implementing such a prediction into their decision making
process gain more benefit than those with un-informed decisions.
Author: Halmar Halide, Rais,
and Peter Ridd
Journal Code: jpkeperawatangg110001
