Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing
Abstract: During
project implementation, risk
becomes an integral
part of project
monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of
risk in project progress monitoring is needed.
The objective of
this study is
to develop a
general framework that
addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists
of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register
(RR), Bayesian Network
(BN), and Project
Time Networks (PTN)
for dynamic project monitoring.
RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized
for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect
the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential
development project is chosen as a working
example and the
result shows that
the proposed framework
has been successfully applied. The specific model of
the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor
the project progress.
It is shown
in this study
that the proposed
BN-based model provides superior
performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.
Author: Budi Hartono, Riesa
Ayuningtyas, Yun Prihantina Mulyani
Journal Code: jptindustrigg150013
