LANDSLIDE RUNOUT DISTANCE PREDICTION BASED ON MECHANISM AND CAUSE OF SOIL OR ROCK MASS MOVEMENT
Abstract: Landslide often
occurs in tropical hills area, such as Indonesia. Research on landslide hazard
evaluation is necessary to decrease the impact in affected and surrounding
areas. Empirical-statistical methods can be used to predict landslide run out
distance in an effort to avoid the danger of landslide occurrences. This study
aims to determine the correlation between landslide run out distance against
high, slope, and volume based on mechanisms and causes of soil or rock mass
movement. Data mainly from 106 landslides in Indonesia has been analyzed to
search for possible correlations and empirical correlations, there are 34
rotational slides, 54 translational slides, 8 debris flows, and 10 rock falls.
Analysis begins by studying the characteristics of the data (explanatory data
analysis) and then analyzed by using empirical methods such as geomorphological
assessment and geometrical approaches. Then the data is processed by simple
linear regression and multiple linear regression method using the R software. The
results obtained from the analysis of the general empirical equation form of
the correlation between height (H) and run out distance (L) is 1.066H1.093,
respectively. This results indicate the higher altitude slopes, the greater
distance will happen. The results of the analysis correlation between height
and run out distance for the type of mass movements for rotational is
L=1.346+1.788 H, translational is L=-3.88+1.578H, debris flow is L=0.682H1.29,
and rock fall is L=2.223H0.897. This result shows debris flows landslide run
out distance is greater than rotational, translational and rock fall. The
results of the analysis correlation between height and run out distance of the
trigger due to the rain is L=1.267H1.027, and by an earthquake is L=0.574H1.38.
This results show run out distance caused by an earthquake is larger than
caused by rain. The correlation between the run out distance and volume (V)
yields empirical equation which is V=0.772L2.108. This results indicate that
greater run out distance is affected by the growing volume of mass movement.
The results of the analysis correlation between height and slope (θ) to run out
distance is L=1.448H1.062 tan θ-0,482. This results indicate that slope has a
significant impact on the value of landslide run out distance.
Keywords: landslide run out
prediction; explanatory data analysis; empirical method; regression analysis
Author: Muhammad Qarinur
Journal Code: jptsipilgg150042
