Low-carbon scenario analysis on urban transport of one metropolitan in China in 2020
Abstract: This paper discussed
possible ways of implementing effective energy conservation and GHG emission
reduction measures by providing: the forecasts of mid-to-long term citywide
carbon emission rate; and the analysis of potential low-carbon transport solutions.
Design/methodology/approach: According to the characteristics of the
transport system in China, based on the review and application analysis of
existing transport energy and GHG emission calculation models, the
comprehensive carbon emission calculation model established. Existing data were
utilized with regression analysis to project the prospective traffic data in
the baseline scenario at the target year of 2020 to calculate the emission
amount. Four low-carbon scenarios were set in accordance with the goal of “low
carbon transportation, green trip”, and the effectiveness of each low-carbon
scenario was evaluated by comparing them with the baseline scenario in terms of
the respective GHG emission rate.
Findings: Under the current developing trend in policy environment and
technical specifications, the total projected GHG (CO2) emissions from
transport sector in 2020 of the city will reach 30.085 million ton CO2;
private-vehicles are the major contributor among all transport modes at 16.89
million ton CO2.
Practical implications: Limiting the growth in private-vehicle ownership,
reducing the frequency of mid-to-long range travel and the average trip
distance, and prompting the public transit oriented policies are all possible
solutions to reduce carbon emission. The most effective practice involves a
shift in public travel behavior.
Originality/value: This paper presents a method to forecast the
mid-to-long term city-wide carbon emission rate; and provides some potential
low-carbon transport solutions
Keywords: Low carbon
transport; Carbon emission; Scenario analysis; Forecasting; Energy conservation
and emission reduction
Penulis: Xiaofei Chen, Zijia
Wang
Journal Code: jptindustrigg120033
