Flicker Measurement and Grey Disaster Prediction of Grid-Connected Wind Turbines
Abstract: Grid-connected
operation of large-scale wind turbines (WTs) will have an impact on power
quality of electric power systems. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing the
International Electrotechnical standard IEC 61400-21, we described the
measurement, evaluation method of the flicker of WTs and proposed the method of
grey disaster prediction.Active power, reactive power, flicker coefficient and
flicker severity ofthe WTs were tested on the actual wind farm according to IEC
61400-21 standard. We believed that theflicker severity was a disaster, so used
the grey disaster prediction to predict the occurrence time of excessive
flicker.Analysis of the test data of flicker was necessary, which could
determine the Upper disaster threshold of the flicker.The disaster sequence was
made up of the excessive flicker values. Thedate sequence was extracted from
the disaster sequence. Establishing GM (1,1) model for the datesequence was to
predict the future disaster date sequence.The experimental results showed that
therelative accuracy of the disaster prediction model reached 94.87%, which was
suitable for long-term flicker disaster prediction.
Author: Zhanqiang Zhang
Journal Code: jptkomputergg150039
