PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN KOMODITI PAPRIKA (CAPSICUM ANNUM) DI PT BIMANDIRI AGRO SEDAYA, LEMBANG
ABSTRACT: PT Bimandiri Agro
Sedaya is a non- manufacturing company ( services ) which operate in the field of
trade as a supplier of fresh vegetables to retail. In December 2013, the
fulfillment of the demand of red paprika, yellow paprika dan green paprika are
70,09 %; 70,24 %, 73,95 % respectively, so we need a method of accurately
forecasting demand to estimate the demand of paprika early. The data is demand
of red, yellow and green paprika commodities during September to December 2013.
The results of pattern data analysis by least squares method and
autocorrelation function shows that data have stationery pattern so used moving
average method, single exponential smoothing and ARIMA. The result of MSE shows
ARIMA metohd has the lowest MSE value for whole paprika. ARIMA method for red
paprika, yellow paprika and green paprika are ARIMA (1,1,2) with MSE of 434,7;ARIMA
(2,1,3) with MSE of 164,4 and ARIMA (1,0,1) with MSE of 321,9 respectively
Penulis: Puji Rahmawati
Nurcahyani, Tania Fauzia Iqbal
Kode Jurnal: jppertaniandd140891
