PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA SERTFIKAT BANK INDONESIA TERHADAP PERUBAHAN NILAI TUKAR (KURS) RUPIAH ATAS DOLAR AMERIKA: GRANGER CAUSALITAS TEST
ABSTRACT: The Bank of
Indonesia Certificate is one of monetary instruments that used by government to
influence IDR Exchange Rate Movement Over USD. The purpose this research is to
obtain the describe more detailed about influence Certificate Bank of Indonesia
toward an IDR Exchange Rate Movement Over USD which try to give an information
in a common manner to be concerned outsider espacially relate to government policy.
This research using the secondary data with limit that analysis during 20
months that are from November 2005 to June 2007. In compile this thesis, the
author carry out the causality relationship analysis (causality) with Granger
Causality Test (GCT) and relationship closeness analysis which using Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) regresion analysis. The Granger Causality Test (GCT)
analysis result explains that from analysis result obtained as model considered
valid is the rate interest of SBI has influence toward an IDR Exchange Rate
Movement over USD. This was proved on GCT test too much significant for Y = f
(x) and not on contary X = f (y). The analysis result of Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) was obtained Ftest (2,18) is 266,081 > Ftable 6,01. This means as
variable an independent influence variable dependent. Beside that was obtained
ttest 16,312 > ttable 2,21009 that mean the rate interest level of SBI has
the influence signicant toward an IDR Exchange Rate Movement Over USD. Because
the Certificate of Bank of Indonesia has negative influence towards IDR
Exchange Rate Movement Over USD, the author suggests the Indonesia Government
to defend and to optimalyze the existing instrument, so that the monetary
condition is more controlled and the stability can be maintained.
Key Words: Rate interest level of SBI, IDR Exchange Rate Movement Over
USD, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Granger Causality Test (GCT)
Penulis: Ferdinandus Stenly
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd100288
