SUATU PENDEKATAN MONETER TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PADA PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA KECIL DENGAN KONTROL MODAL: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA 2010.1-2014.12
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this
study is to formulate the monetary model of the economic growth in a small open
economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible
exchange rate system) and capital mobility is not perfect (imperfect capital
mobility), as well as the factors that influence economic growth, exchange
rates and interest rates with monetary approach (mathematically and
empirically).This study uses a structural analysis approach to vector
autoregresion with monthly data Indonesia in 2010-2014. The empirical results
reveal that changes in the money supply is a significant negative effect on
economic growth 0.1008 Indonesia. Moreover, economic growth is affected by the
magnitude of the previous period of economic growth significantly by 0.391825,
where the magnitude of the effect is determined by the strength of the exchange
rate in response to changes in interest rates Indonesia, the greater the
exchange rate response to changes in interest rates, the weakening influence of
the period of economic growth prior to economic growth. For a small open
economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible
exchange rate system), then the value of the rupiah per dollar exchange rate is
influenced significantly by the amount of money in circulation (0.063318), the
exchange rate value of the last period (0.746), and the interest rate the
previous period (0.3424), the interest rate two previous periods (-0.305848).
For situations of capital mobility is not perfect, then the variable
interest rate is treated as endogenous variables, the empirical results show
that the level of BI rate significantly influenced only by the BI rate the
previous month (1.4526) and the interest rate of the previous two months
(0.524)
KEYWORDS: : Economic Growth,
Small open economy, Flexible exchange Rate, imperfect capital mobility
Penulis: Aris Soelistyo
Kode Jurnal: jpmanajemendd151563
